The deepening cocoa crisis in major cocoa-producing countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire is yet to affect Namibia as reflected in recent inflation figures, research experts Simonis Storm have said.
It has been reported that that chocolate prices are continuously rising due to a deepening cocoa crisis in major cocoa-producing countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. The catastrophic crop failures caused by the swollen shoot virus have affected over 590,000 hectares of cocoa plantations in Ghana alone, resulting in significant shortages of cocoa beans.
“However, the full impact of these crop failures may not be immediately felt, as chocolate manufacturers often hedge cocoa purchases months in advance. This suggests that consumers may experience the effects later in 2024. This phenomenon is reflected in Namibia’s consumer price index, where chocolate inflation stood at 4.7% y/y and ice cream at 12.4% y/y in March 2024, indicating that the effects of the cocoa crisis have not yet materialized in our market,” Simonis Storm said.
The annual inflation rate for the non-alcoholic beverages subcategory stood at 8.9% y/y in March 2024, showing an increase from the 8.5% y/y inflation rate reported in February 2024. Specifically, the inflation rate for coffee, tea, and cocoa in March 2024 was 12.2% y/y, up from 9.7% y/y in March 2023 and 11.2% y/y in February 2024.
Namibia is experiencing a more rapid slowdown in annual inflation than anticipated, with March 2024 seeing an annual inflation rate of 4.5% y/y, the lowest since July 2023. This marks a deceleration from the 7.2% y/y recorded in March 2023 and the 5.0% y/y in February 2024. Additionally, the average annual inflation for the first quarter of 2024 stands at 5.0% y/y, compared to 5.9% y/y in the same period of 2023.
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